Portugal

🌎 Europe

Year

Celsius (°C)

🌞Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Aug):

Comfortable : 22 °C

❄️️Average Winter Temperature (Dec-Feb)️:

Cold: 10 °C

🥵 Extreme hot days:

2 days/year

🥶 Freezing:

7 days/year

💵 Costs ($USD):

-0.3% of future GDP

🏭 RCP 8.5 scenario

Country Context 📜

Portugal comprises three different areas: the mainland in the European Continent (the Mainland) and two archipelagos in the Atlantic Ocean, the Archipelago of the Azores and the Archipelago of Madeira. Portugal its territory has a total area of 92,226 km2 and a coastline of 2,601 km. Portugal its population is estimated at 10.3 million (2015), of which 65.2% live in urban areas. In mainland Portugal, resident population is concentrated along the Atlantic coast. Since 2000 the Portuguese economy has been showing difficulties in ensuring economic growth, which was aggravated in 2008 by the international economic and financial crisis and forced a program of economic and financial adjustment. Since 2013 growth has restored reaching 2.7 % in 2017 (IMF). The climate in mainland Portugal is predominantly influenced by latitude, orography and its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-70s the average temperature has risen in all regions of Portugal at a rate of approximately 0.3 C per decade. Out of the ten warmest years, seven occurred after 1990, with 1997 being the warmest year. The last four decades have been continuously drier, the driest one being 2001-2010. Portugal submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as an EU Member State in 2015 and its Seventh National Communication in 2017.

How hot will it be in Portugal in 2030?

It's predicted that the average summer temperatures (Jun-Aug) in Portugal will increase to 22 °C in 2030. The average winter temperature (Dec-Feb) in Portugal will increase to 10 °C in 2030. These temperatures have been calculated according to the RCP 8.5 scenario by the IPCC, also known as the "business as usual" scenario. RCP stands for "Representative Concentration Pathway" and describes how greenhouse gas emissions will proceed in the future. In the "business as usual" scenario, emissions continue to rise during the 21st century.

How many days of extreme heat will there be in Portugal in 2030?

Around the year 2030, Portugal will have 2 days where the temperature will be uncomfortably hot for humans. That means 2 days a year of a temperature higher than 35 °C / 95 °F, where the body is unable to cool itself by sweating. That's an increase of 1 day compared to the same period of 2005. An easily said rule in Europe is:

For a glimpse of how that would feel like, look 800 kilometers south. As earth heats up, your area will be similar to that of your southern neighbors.
What does an increase in heat mean?

Averages can be tricky. Just a few degrees of difference can have a huge impact on a country. It implies shifting the entire climate of latitudinal bands and also changes of local weather in those places. For some countries, heat increase will lead to hunger, as rising heat and extreme weather threaten to reduce crop yields and even the nutritional value of the food we grow. If this is not addressed, it means that countries deal with less water, less food, problems with electricity, and other systematic issues. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood, and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pests and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems (IPCC Global Warming of 1.5 °C Report, 2018). To find out which hazards are of importance for Portugal, switch to the "hazards" tab.

How much will climate change cost Portugal in 2030?

AI-powered algorithms predict that the mortality risk for Portugal will be -0.3 % of Portugal its future GDP every year around 2030. The projected mortality risks of future climate change include both projected change in deaths and the change in adaptation costs to climate change. It does not take into account the rising sea levels, as it is largely corresponding to extremely hot days (>35°C/95°F). To see how the costs are calculated, check the methodology below (Carleton et al, 2020).

Comparison to the rest of the world

Under a high emissions scenario, scientists estimate that the mean increase in mortality risk is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100, with today's cold locations benefiting and damages being especially large in today's poor and/or hot locations. Also, they estimate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause damages of $36.6 under a high emissions scenario and $17.1 under an intermediate scenario.

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